Ice days and freezing rain
Editorial Team · November 4, 2026
Why a little freezing rain closes more Canadian schools than a deeper, drier snowfall, and how the score counts it.
A centimetre of ice is a different problem from ten centimetres of snow. Snow can be plowed, blown, and walked through with boots. Freezing rain coats stairs, hills, bus brakes, and the walk from the door to the car. It is why a modest-looking forecast in Windsor, Halifax, Moncton, or Vancouver can be a bigger school-day problem than a heavier but drier fall in a snow-belt city.
What freezing rain is
Freezing rain falls as liquid and freezes on contact with a colder surface. It needs a layer of above-freezing air overhead and a frozen ground or a frozen morning at the surface. Ice pellets, which bounce, are a cousin and often show up in the same storm as the warm layer thins. Wet snow sits in between. You do not need the physics degree. You need the hourly forecast: is liquid falling while the temperature at the ground is at or below zero, and is that happening before the buses leave?
Environment and Climate Change Canada remains the public forecast to compare against. Their weather office is the official one. Our score uses Open-Meteo's hourly weather codes, including the codes for freezing drizzle and freezing rain (56, 57, 66, and 67). Heavy freezing rain or heavy freezing drizzle adds an extra bump, once, not once per hour. Rain that falls at or below freezing without those codes is counted more lightly, as a risk of ice rather than a confirmed ice storm. The methodology has the weights and the caps.
Why the snow-tolerance multiplier does not apply
Cities that handle a lot of snow get a discount on snow points. They do not get a discount on ice. Barrie can dig out of a lake-effect dump and still be stopped by a glaze. Vancouver's low snow tolerance and Windsor's ordinary snow tolerance both still take freezing rain at full weight. Wind on top of ice is worse again, because the wind factor turns on when either snow or freezing rain is already in the window.
What the score is not
The score is not a road report, a sidewalk inspection, or permission to drive. A low number does not mean the hill on your street is fine. A high number does not mean you should experiment with the car. It means the morning is more likely to produce a board or bus decision, and that you should read the official site before you assume school is on. If staff cannot get in, or the power is out, the board can close for reasons this formula will miss. That gap is the point of confirming in the morning.
Editorial Team. The Editorial Team writes and maintains this site. We document the predictor, check school-board and transportation links against the organizations' own websites, and correct pages when those sites change. We are not a school board, a transportation consortium, or a government office.